JTB has forecasted that Japanese overnight travelers will reduce by 0.1% year on year to 77.34 million in total in this coming summer vacation period (July 15 to August 31 2019). Overseas travelers are expected to increase by 3.5% to record high 2.99 million, however domestic travelers to decline by 0.2% to 74.35 million.
According to the questionnaires, the ratio of answers of ‘Almost equal holiday length to a year ago’ is 35.1%, while ‘longer holidays than a year ago’ is 13.1%, 1.7 higher points than a year ago. JTB has analyzed that the market will totally stagnate due to expected rise of the consumption tax in October this year.
Travel spending is expected to increase by 4.9% to 3,372 billion yen, which consist of 2,691.5 billion JPY for domestic travel (+3.8%) and 680.8 billion JPY for overseas travel (+9.8%). The average travel expenses are 36,200 JPY a traveler domestic travel (+4.0%) and 227,700 JPY a traveler for overseas travel (+6.2%).
According to the questionnaires, the ratio of answers of ‘more spending than a year ago’ is 10.8%, 1.5 lower points than a year ago, and ‘less spending than a year ago’ is 40.7%, 4.0 higher points than a year ago.
Regarding household income, the ratio of ‘increase’ is 19.6% (-1.1 points), while ‘decrease’ is 21.1% (+2.3 points). Answers of ‘increase’ are more than answers of ‘decrease’ among 20 to 30s males and 20s females.
The busiest day for departures overseas is expected to be August 10 generally, according to airlines’ booking status and the market trend, and for Hawaii, Guam or Saipan, the latter half of August may be preferred because of lower prices. The JTB booking status finds that the most popular destination is Hawaii, followed by Guam/Saipan, South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore. The high growth rates are seen in Hawaii and U.K. maybe due to launch of Kansai-London flights.
The table below shows travelers’ estimations by overseas destination:
In the domestic travel market, JTB has forecasted that the busiest days for departures will be August 11 and 12. The most popular destination is Okinawa, followed by Hokkaido, Kansai (including USJ), Tokyo (including Tokyo Disneyland) and Kyushu.
The most-selected accommodations are hotels with a share of 48.8% (2.8 higher points than a year ago), followed by ryokan with 28.6% and parents’ homes with 25.9%.
Regarding the average expenses a traveler, the most answers are found in 10,000 to 20,000 JPY (21.8%), followed by 20,000 to 30,000 JPY (20.1%). The most-selected travel length is two days and one night with a share of 36.6%, followed by three days and two nights with 30.8%.
The table below shows shares of domestic travelers by destination:
