Japan Association of Travel Agents (JATA) released the results of the quarterly travel market trend survey, which was based on answers from 311 travel companies in the period between February 3 and 21 2020. According to that, DI (Diffusion Index) considerably dropped from the previous survey in December 2019 in all of inbound, outbound and domestic travel markets.
Most of the travel companies answered that each of the markets will not recover to the level before the novel coronavirus broke out even six months later.
DI in the inbound travel market was down 81 points to -77 points, which were much lower than DI in the outbound travel market and the domestic travel market. By region, declines in China (-83 points) and South Korea (-82 points) stand out, and DI in other regions dropped to -40 points to -70 points.
The future DI was slightly up 9 points to -68 points three months later and 45 points to -32 points six months later compared to today. Many travel companies, however, said that the future is unclear.
In the outbound travel market, DI dropped by 49 points to -68 points, as DI in all destinations largely declined, such as -95 points for China, -84 points for South Korea, -65 points for Asia or -32 points even for Hawaii. Both business and leisure travel demands were damaged a lot, and DI for FIT dropped from -50 points previously to-65 points.
The future DI was up 5 points to -65 points three months later and 30 points to -38 points six months later compared to today. The survey finds that recovery may be slower in Hawaii, Europe, Australia and Micronesia. Some travel companies said that overseas travel demand in this coming summer is expected to decline not only because of the novel coronavirus but also because of Tokyo Olympic Games in July.
In the domestic travel market, DI dropped by 35 points to -46 points, particularly by 37 points to -46 points for Hokkaido. DI by traveler segment was -42 points for senior, -53 points for family, -57 points for office lady or -56 points for student.
The future DI was up 8 points to -38 points three months later and 23 points to -23 points six months later compared to today. One of the anxieties for travel companies was that bookings are expected to reduce because of worse holiday sequence in this coming Golden Week than a year earlier, rather than negative influences from the novel coronavirus.
